2021 Grammy Awards Predictions
We predict who will win, who should win, and who was undeservedly left out of the running at the upcoming 63rd Grammy Awards.
Written by Roberto Soto
Photos courtesy of Beth Garrabrant for Republic Records, Hendrik Schneider for Rina Sawayama, and Adrienne Raquel for GQ
This Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7 p.m. CT on CBS, we shall see what the largely old, white male Recording Academy believes is the future of music. As trying as 2020 was, we cannot deny the level of excellence that so many musicians delivered this past year. Women have especially “stepped it up” this year and are rightfully being honored at this year’s ceremony.
With the deserved celebration of some are surprise nominations. Even though Billie Eilish became the youngest of only three artists in history to sweep the big four General Field categories when she won big last year, the 2021 nominees prove to be a highly competitive bunch.
We must remember that the Grammys are not the most accurate marker of success or sonic excellence. And for that, we must also recognize and celebrate those artists that fell to the wayside (or were, seemingly, deliberately excluded).
Read on for Afterglow’s predictions in the most highly anticipated categories: Album Of The Year, Record Of The Year, Song Of The Year, and Best New Artist.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Nominations:
Chilombo — Jhené Aiko
Black Pumas (Deluxe Edition) — Black Pumas
Everyday Life — Coldplay
Djesse Vol.3 — Jacob Collier
Women In Music Pt. III — Haim
Future Nostalgia — Dua Lipa
Hollywood's Bleeding — Post Malone
Folklore — Taylor Swift
Who will win: Folklore — Taylor Swift
It’s been years since one of the most prolific pop culture icons last won the big trophy, and folklore may just be her time again. folklore feels emblematic of this chapter of the Taylor Swift story: It is comforting and reflective of our current moment and fuses the singer’s more raw country roots with a new style of production and storytelling. The album is introspective with touches of the magic and escapism that is so ingrained in the country music Swift grew up making.
Who should win: Folklore — Taylor Swift
The careful crafting of folklore, coupled with Swift’s growth into the elusive post-Reputation life in the Disney+ original “Folklore: The Long Pond Session,” are what make the album a standout and expected winner. With the added boost in attention from her second surprise release, evermore, and the upcoming re-release of Fearless, her sophomore album which won the big award a decade ago, Swift is a sure shot for the coveted AOTY.
Biggest Snub: Untitled (Black Is) — Sault
As long-awaited as Taylor's recognition is at this year's awards, still, the Academy entirely ignored one of the year’s most compelling pieces of work by enigmatic collective Sault. The group released Untitled (Black Is) on Juneteenth, and the project is not only a collection of soulful and interesting production, but also a deep reflection of the present moment and civil unrest that lit up the world this past summer.
The UK-based group drew on history and its members’ deepest feelings about being Black in a continually divisive world. Featuring psychedelic rock to jazz-influenced R&B, the album reminds us all that ”when everything else fails, Black endures.”
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Nominations:
“Black Parade” — Beyoncé
“Colors” — Black Pumas
“Rockstar” — DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch
“Say So” — Doja Cat
“Everything I Wanted” — Billie Eilish
“Don't Start Now” — Dua Lipa
“Circles” — Post Malone
“Savage” — Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyoncé
Who will win: “Don’t Start Now” — Dua Lipa
After winning Best New Artist in 2019, Dua Lipa has, admittedly, evolved into a true pop star over the past two years. We all loved bouncing around to our favorite superspreader’s masterfully electric Future Nostalgia at the start of lockdown, and “Don’t Start Now” was an exciting entrance into Lipa’s disco era. The song is fun and catchy, an exciting escape into the nightclubs of our minds that we longed for all year.
Who should win: “Savage” — Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyoncé
Best New Artist nominee Megan Thee Stallion teamed up with fellow Houston-native Beyoncé for a remix of Megan’s single, “Savage,” one of the most enticing anthems of the year. It had its big moment on TikTok, as did another nominee, “Say So” (though “Savage” lacked the cloaked presence of Dr. Luke). Newcomer Meg seemingly pulled Beyoncé out of seclusion to bless the world with this celebration of oneself in all their sexy, nasty glory.
Biggest Snub: “Blinding Lights” — The Weeknd
However, another record-breaking song, “Blinding Lights,” would have been in great company with any of these tracks. After getting zero nominations for his album After Hours, The Weeknd made sure to call out how unjustified his exclusion was, and he was not alone. Regardless, Abel Tesfaye has still had quite a year.
If there is any artist that has shown how awards are just another gimmick, it is The Weeknd. From kicking off 2021 with “Blinding Lights” as one of the first viral TikTok challenges, to his highly-memed gig at the Super Bowl Halftime Show this past February, the omission was merely a blip in his year.
SONG OF THE YEAR
Nominations:
“Black Parade” — Denisia Andrews, Beyoncé, Stephen Bray, Shawn Carter, Brittany Coney, Derek James Dixie, Akil King, Kim "Kaydence" Krysiuk & Rickie "Caso" Tice, songwriters (Beyoncé)
“The Box” — Larrance Dopson, Samuel Gloade, Rodrick Moore, Adarius Moragne, Eric Sloan & Khirye Anthony Tyler, songwriters (Roddy Ricch)
“Cardigan” — Aaron Dessner & Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift)
“Circles” — Louis Bell, Adam Feeney, Kaan Gunesberk, Austin Post & Billy Walsh, songwriters (Post Malone)
“Don't Start Now” — Caroline Ailin, Ian Kirkpatrick, Dua Lipa & Emily Warren, songwriters (Dua Lipa)
“Everything I Wanted” — Billie Eilish O'Connell & Finneas O'Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish)
“I Can't Breathe” — Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. & Tiara Thomas, songwriters (H.E.R.)
“If The World Was Ending” — Julia Michaels & JP Saxe, songwriters (JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels)
Who will win: “Cardigan” — Aaron Dessner & Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift)
The string that ties together the songs on folklore, an album Taylor Swift created through the exploration of her imagination, is the apparent love triangle between the record’s characters. Our first introduction to this tale was “Cardigan,” which nabbed the No. 1 spot upon its debut. Because of the amount of excitement the album ignited upon its release, its lead single seems to be the best contender for the Song of The Year. Since the category is based on songwriting merit, it seems only fair that, along with the album, Swift and Aaron Dessner will be recognized for this individual presentation of skill.
Who should win: “Black Parade” — Denisia Andrews, Beyoncé, Stephen Bray, Shawn Carter, Brittany Coney, Derek James Dixie, Akil King, Kim "Kaydence" Krysiuk & Rickie "Caso" Tice, songwriters (Beyoncé)
After teaming up with Megan Thee Stallion on “Savage Remix” in the spring, Beyoncé blessed the world with the Disney+ exclusive “Black Is King,” a summertime celebration of Pan-African life. The rise in awareness of police brutality and racial bias in the United States (and beyond) following the police killing of George Floyd on May 25, 2020 brought with it a celebration and recognition of Black people’s contributions, as well as tribulations, in the world.
On “Black Parade,” Queen Bey celebrates the beauty of being Black and claims her space as a Black woman in America, reminding herself that she “can’t forget my history is her story,” letting the “Motherland drip on me.” This is a song that feels representative of the times, with on-trend trap beats threaded with tradition in its use of airy flutes and choral support that lift us as she sings praises of her ancestors and supporters. However, if history is an indicator of anything, Beyoncé will once again leave the night recognized, but ultimately overlooked.
Biggest Snub: “Kyoto” — Phoebe Bridgers, Morgan Nagler, & Marshall Vore, songwriters (Phoebe Bridgers)
The bouncy and moody “Kyoto” could have been a great contender for Song of the Year. Melancholic horns accompany guitar riffs as Phoebe Bridgers yearns about running to Japan to escape her sadness and hurt, much like Rina Sawayama’s “Akasaka Sad.” What makes Bridgers’ portrayal so distinct is that Japan is in no way “home,” but neither is where she really came from — the idea of escaping everything she knows and still ending up fruitless adds a different nuance. Along with her airy, grave vocals, the darker subject matter of parental conflict and the complexities that come with it are resonant with so many young people that were primed by artists like Billie Eilish and Angel Olsen.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Nominations:
Ingrid Andress
Phoebe Bridgers
Chika
Noah Cyrus
D Smoke
Doja Cat
Kaytranada
Megan Thee Stallion
Who will win: Phoebe Bridgers
Being the critical darling that she is, Phoebe Bridgers will likely win, since the Academy snubbed her in the other three General Field categories. Much like her music, Bridgers has slowly and deeply moved into the hearts and minds of introspective ladies and gentlethems who can’t help but feel that they are the main character in a “Lady Bird”-esque film. Just like her controversial, yet epic SNL performance, Punisher is an incredibly clever and beautifully crafted album. Bridgers has the kind of suburban goth charm that is at times playful and at others painful, but wholly engulfing. As showcased by last year’s winner, The Academy is a big believer in the future of music being “sad girl rock” and thorough, ambient production. Plus, who doesn’t love a sleeper hit?
Who should win: Megan Thee Stallion
As one of the 100 Most Influential People of 2020, Megan Thee Stallion simply is the moment. With two No. 1 singles in her ‘debut’ year, Meg has dominated the cultural zeitgeist with her unmatched flow and alluring production. TikTok embraced so many of her hits this year and, even after losing her mother, being shot, and facing legal drama with her former labels, she has proven it is impossible to silence her. Good News, Megan’s official debut album, was a peek into what we can expect from her reign. Although “controversial” for her fierce sexuality, Megan Thee Stallion has proven to be our dream girl, dream bestie, and a hot girl scholar. If anyone has proven themselves to be the moment, it is Megan Thee Stallion.
Biggest Snub: Rina Sawayama
Rina Sawyama was one of 2020’s strongest contributors to the future of music and was ignored by basically every form of recognition in the U.S. and her home in the U.K. Her debut album, Sawayama, explores themes of generational trauma, racism, chosen family, and life as an immigrant with some of the most complex, interesting production of the year. By blending nu-metal with bubblegum pop elements and R&B with stadium rock, Sawayama is, arguably, 2020’s most interesting album. Just ask Elton John.
Thanks to Sawyama’s revolutionary debut, her ineligibility for the U.K.’s most coveted music awards sparked contention between fans and the Mercury and BRITs, compelling them to change the xenophobic eligibility requirements. The whole event panned out like a perfect exhibition of the themes discussed on the album and, hopefully, just as things are looking up for other artists in the awards, Sawayama is not through with changing the landscape of pop music. Although she was not a TikTok sensation, nor a chart-topper, Rina Sawayama is a name we will not be able to ignore and, for that, is most deserving of Best New Artist.
Catch some of our faves, including Austin-based, AOTY-nominated Black Pumas, at the Grammy Awards this Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 7 p.m. CT on CBS.