2023 Grammy Awards Predictions

Afterglow predicts who will win, who should win, and who was robbed entirely at the upcoming 65th Grammy Awards.

Written by Audrey Vieira

This Sunday, February 5th at 7 p.m. CT on CBS, the Recording Academy will once again decide whether or not they will award Adele, Beyoncé, or a secret third artist at yet another Grammy Awards ceremony. Judging by her track record in previous years, Adele is likely to take home several awards, but there is hope that Beyoncé will finally receive that coveted album of the year (AOTY) award for RENAISSANCE after previously losing to Adele during their last faceoff.

This year also includes the first Spanish-language AOTY nominee, with Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti receiving a nomination. Less exciting is the first Grammy-nominated TikTok audio thanks to GAYLE’s “abcdefu” somehow receiving a song of the year (SOTY) nomination. The Recording Academy tends to struggle with younger demographics, as demonstrated by dwindling ratings over the past few years, but its members should work to remedy that with more representation instead of edgy nursery rhymes.

Read on for Afterglow’s predictions in the most highly anticipated categories: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR (AOTY)

Nominations:

Voyage — ABBA
30 — Adele
Un Verano Sin Ti — Bad Bunny
RENAISSANCE — Beyoncé
Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe) — Mary J. Blige
In These Silent Days — Brandi Carlile
Music of the Spheres — Coldplay
Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers — Kendrick Lamar
Special — Lizzo
Harry’s House — Harry Styles

Who Will Win: 30 — Adele

Adele and the Grammy awards go way back. She has won every nomination since 2012, including two AOTY wins for 30’s predecessors 21 and 25. In 2017, she became the only artist to sweep the three general categories (Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Record of the Year) on two separate occasions. If she doesn’t repeat this feat with 30, it will be her first Grammy loss since 2010, but this seems unlikely considering her strong track record.

Who Should Win: RENAISSANCE — Beyoncé

Like Adele, Beyoncé also seems to be one of the Recording Academy’s favorite artists, and her ballroom tribute RENAISSANCE should result in further awards. However, Queen Bey also has a history of losing Grammys to Adele — losing all three major categories to Adele in 2017, prompting Adele herself to speak out about how Lemonade deserved the AOTY win over 25 that year. It will be disappointing (but not surprising) if RENAISSANCE takes home Best Electronic Album as a consolation prize for another Adele sweep, but hopefully Beyoncé prevails and wins AOTY this time.

Biggest Snub: Traumazine — Megan Thee Stallion

Following a well-deserved win for Best New Artist in 2021, Megan Thee Stallion’s sophomore album Traumazine should have been a shoe-in for AOTY. In addition to showcasing Megan’s flawless flow, Traumazine sees the rapper open up about her experiences with loneliness and grief while empowering listeners to prioritize their own mental health. Of course, the album also has its fair share of club anthems such as “Her” and “Sweetest Pie,” but the brilliance of Traumazine lies in Megan’s ability to juxtapose confident beats with candid vulnerability. It’s unfortunate that the Recording Academy didn’t feel anything for this visceral record.

RECORD OF THE YEAR (ROTY)

Nominations:

“Don’t Shut Me Down” — ABBA
“Easy On Me” — Adele
“BREAK MY SOUL” — Beyoncé
“Good Morning Gorgeous” — Mary J. Blige
“You And Me On The Rock” — Brandi Carlile featuring Lucius
“Woman” — Doja Cat
“Bad Habit” — Steve Lacy
“The Heart Part 5” — Kendrick Lamar
“About Damn Time” — Lizzo
“As It Was” — Harry Styles

Who Will Win: “Easy On Me” — Adele

“Easy On Me” didn’t have a hard time on the charts. It spent 12 weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 last year, outperforming the successful reign of her 2015 single “Hello” which swept the 2017 Grammys. Considering the Recording Academy’s patterns of rewarding such heights of popularity, “Easy On Me” seems like a lock for ROTY.

Who Should Win: “Don’t Shut Me Down” — ABBA

Despite creating hits like “Dancing Queen” and “Waterloo” during their heyday in the ‘70s, the Swedish pop quartet didn’t get their first Grammy nomination until their comeback single “I Still Have Faith In You” finally caught the Recording Academy’s attention in 2021. A “Don’t Shut Me Down” victory would be a long-overdue acknowledgment of ABBA’s decades of greatness, and the triumphant song itself deserves recognition in its own right.

Biggest Snub: “Después de la Playa” — Bad Bunny

Bad Bunny’s fourth album, Un Verano Sin Ti, made Grammy history as the first Spanish-language album to score an AOTY nomination, yet his single “Después de la Playa” was shut out of the ROTY category. He and Coldplay are this year’s only two AOTY nominees not to score a ROTY nomination, but Bunny’s snub is particularly upsetting considering the lack of recognition for Spanish-language songs at the Grammys.

SONG OF THE YEAR (SOTY)

Nominations:

“abcdefu” — Sara Davis, GAYLE & Dave Pittenger, songwriters (GAYLE)
“About Damn Time” — Melissa “Lizzo” Jefferson, Eric Frederic, Blake Slatkin & Theron Makiel Thomas, songwriters (Lizzo)
“All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film)” — Liz Rose & Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift)
“As It Was” — Tyler Johnson, Kid Harpoon & Harry Styles, songwriters (Harry Styles)
“Bad Habit” — Matthew Castellanos, Brittany Fousheé, Diana Gordon, John Carroll Kirby & Steve Lacy, songwriters (Steve Lacy)
“BREAK MY SOUL” — Beyoncé, S. Carter, Terius "The-Dream" Gesteelde-Diamant & Christopher A. Stewart, songwriters (Beyoncé)
“Easy On Me” — Adele Adkins & Greg Kurstin, songwriters (Adele)
“GOD DID” — Tarik Azzouz, E. Blackmon, Khaled Khaled, F. LeBlanc, Shawn Carter, John Stephens, Dwayne Carter, William Roberts & Nicholas Warwar, songwriters (DJ Khaled Featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy)
“The Heart Part 5” — Jake Kosich, Johnny Kosich, Kendrick Lamar & Matt Schaeffer, songwriters (Kendrick Lamar)
“Just Like That” — Bonnie Raitt, songwriter (Bonnie Raitt)

Who Will Win: “Easy On Me” — Adele Adkins & Greg Kurstin, songwriters (Adele)

Adele’s “Easy On Me” is the clear frontrunner in this category due to her history of Grammy wins as well as the possibility of votes for other artists being split among viral hits such as “abcdefu,” “As It Was,” and “About Damn Time.” Recording Academy members who want a viral anthem to win SOTY might not be able to agree which song to unite behind, but those who voted for Adele in the past are likely to follow tradition and give her yet another win.

Who Should Win: “The Heart Part 5” — Jake Kosich, Johnny Kosich, Kendrick Lamar & Matt Schaeffer, songwriters (Kendrick Lamar)

Kendrick Lamar’s single “The Heart Part 5” contains the most dense lyricism of the SOTY nominees, paying tribute to the late Nipsey Hussle while also reflecting on his own legacy and desire for love. He deserves to take home the top songwriting honor of the night for that alone, as his win would emphasize the importance of songwriting as an art form instead of the prioritization of social media clout.

Biggest Snub: “Sweetest Pie” — Megan Thee Stallion and Dua Lipa

This catchy collaboration between two Best New Artist winners seemed to be the Grammy equivalent of Oscar bait, and deservedly so — it’s a genuinely well-written song with witty double entendres and healthy helpings of charisma from both its performers. It’s odd that “abcdefu” made the cut while sweetness like this went untouched by the Recording Academy. Anyone can sing the ABCs, but only Megan Thee Stallion and Dua Lipa could unite for “Sweetest Pie.”

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominations:

Anitta
Omar Apollo
DOMi & JD Beck
Muni Long
Samara Joy
Latto
Måneskin
Tobe Nwigwe
Molly Tuttle
Wet Leg

Who Will Win: Wet Leg

Receiving nominations in three other categories in addition to Best New Artist, Wet Leg seems like the most likely candidate to take home the coveted Best New Artist trophy. The British indie rock band may only have one album out, but their multiple nominations imply that the Recording Academy is paying close attention to their rising stardom.

Who Should Win: Wet Leg

The hype around Wet Leg is justified by carefree, endearing singles as well as charming live performances, including an appearance at Austin City Limits. A Wet Leg win would also be true to the title of the award. Having released their debut single “Chaise Longue” in summer of 2021, the band is still in the early stages of its career, but a Best New Artist award would recognize their present greatness in addition to their future potential.

Biggest Snub: Mitski
She may not be a “new” artist, but her newfound popularity on TikTok and her fantastic new album, Laurel Hell, should have been acknowledged by the Recording Academy. After all, Glass Animals was nominated for Best New Artist in 2021 despite having made music for nearly a decade, so Mitski’s past works wouldn’t necessarily disqualify her. Her wistful, melancholy lyricism should have made her a frontrunner, yet the Academy didn’t even give her the honor of a nomination.